The Future of Electric Vehicles

As those unfamiliar with the topic gradually witness the changes taking place, they may perceive the transformation as almost linear. Take electric vehicles (EVs) as an example. Enthusiasts of innovation and advocates for carbon neutrality are genuinely thrilled about the advancements in EVs, green technology, and artificial intelligence.

However, here's the surprising reality: EVs are on the brink of achieving a state of linear growth, where production remains consistent year after year, in just three to four years!

This is illustrated by the current global S-curve, where we find ourselves at the red arrow indicating EV growth.

We are nearing a transition from exponential to linear growth, and this change will occur rapidly. Importantly, this linear growth indicates scalability, which is a positive development! However, it also means that the average person may not witness the exponential growth firsthand, as it appears to emerge seemingly out of nowhere.

The exponential phase of an S-curve often goes unnoticed by the general public. Six years ago, I warned friends in the automotive and oil industries that their professions would largely become obsolete within fifteen years. They laughed at the idea.

Yet, we have surpassed a critical threshold where approximately 20% of sales consist of EVs, solidifying the path toward full adoption of 100% EVs and renewable energy. Once a technology reaches 5-10% adoption, it is mass-produced at a scale that drives prices down, making it accessible to the mainstream market.

Why haven’t we observed a more significant impact on fossil fuel usage? The answer lies in the fact that, despite remarkable growth rates of around 50% in solar energy deployments, the expansion of renewable energy is still lagging behind the growing demand for energy. Currently, we are transitioning just 2% of energy sources each year.

However, by 2026, we expect to achieve a 5% transition, which will significantly replace fossil fuels. Emissions are projected to decline starting in 2028.

The crucial point is that renewable energy has already begun to affect fossil fuel consumption. If we hadn’t implemented solar and wind energy solutions, the fossil fuel sector would have extracted more oil and gas, leading to even higher emissions.

This is a straightforward conclusion, yet it is often overlooked, similar to how the efficacy of vaccines was questioned during the COVID-19 pandemic despite solid evidence showing they saved millions of lives.

No accolades are given for eliminating negative factors that were once prevalent. People tend to overlook the potential consequences of inaction, which is a troubling mindset.

Soon, we will no longer face this issue regarding carbon emissions, as they will begin to significantly decline, leading to the inevitable downfall of the fossil fuel industry. Ironically, the phase of linear growth represents the peak production rate, which is substantial!

This growth at scale is likely to drive the automotive sector toward nearly 100% EV adoption within the next decade. While production may not cease entirely afterward—due to the need for consumer replacements and advancements in technology—full adoption will be achieved much earlier, akin to the widespread acceptance of color televisions.

Nonetheless, challenges such as lithium refinement may slightly delay the onset of this linear growth. Overall, the principle remains valid.

Chapter 2: Understanding the Concept of Time

As we explore the implications of this transition, it's essential to consider how our perception of time influences our understanding of growth in technology.

The first video, "Time Is Not Linear," delves into the philosophical implications of time and how our perceptions shape our understanding of progress and innovation.

The second video, "What do you mean when you say that time is not linear? - FAQ #5," offers insights into this concept, helping viewers grasp the complexities of time and its relation to technological advancement.